Every year during the Major League Baseball spring training schedule the same topic comes up: does a team’s results in spring training relate to how well they will do in the regular season?
One way to compare spring training results to subsequent regular season success is to examine a team's recent history. This can determine which year's teams had the best spring training records and how they eventually fared in the regular season. You can also compare their records to the teams with the worst spring training results to find any correlation.
This analysis was done after the 2008 season, and compared the 15 best spring training records over the previous 12 seasons with the same team's regular season records that same year. In spring training the top 15 teams compiled a .691 winning percentage, while in the regular season their winning percentage was just .509. Over the same time period the 15 worst spring training teams had an anemic .316 winning percentage. These same teams went on to post a .507 winning percentage in the regular season. The difference between the 15 worst spring training teams and the 15 best equated to a grand total of 5 less wins out of 2,430 games played.
The above comparison used the best and worst records of any team in any spring training year. What about looking at individual teams which did the best over the same time period? If you take the 5 teams with the best combined spring training records over the same 12 years, you will see their average spring training record was .587. Those team's regular season records over that same period averaged again right at .509. The reality is you can compile the results any way you wish, but there isn’t any statistical correlation between won/loss records in spring training and a team's success in the regular season.
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